CONFERENCE SUMMARIES

Keynote Address: "What's in Store for Urbanized Areas?"
Anthony Downs, Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institute, Washington, D.C.

Anthony Downs, a leading authority in transportation and urbanization, offered an analysis of the Tysons Land Use Task Force’s long-term vision for growth and urbanization in Tysons Corner. Downs, who noted that he may be the only person in the room who actually read the plan, offered a promising analysis of the challenges Tysons Corner will face as it moves toward a more urban model and the potential for the plan’s success. However, he opened by noting the three elements of urbanization that Tysons lacks:

1. Ease of movement
2. Close spatial relationships of buildings
3. More residents within the area and more workers who live and work in Tysons

Encouraging and planning for the elements Downs identified are part of the Task Force’s plan for Tysons Corner. Downs pointed out, however, that while there are no truly free land markets, the Task Force’s plan represents a new concept of regulating private land use in urban centers that is fairly new to the United States. It is a model that has traditionally been much more common in Europe and Britain. These regulations restrict land owners’ control over their land and potentially their profit from its use, potentially creating friction and resentment between the regulatory authority and the land owners.

In order for the Task Force’s plan to be successfully, Downs said, the following challenges must be overcome:

First, success in regulating privately held land and space depends on predicting its value. But, Downs noted, the challenges in doing so are significant at a time when the markets are fluctuating dramatically. Fairfax County’s residential housing market, for instance, saw dramatic increases followed by equally dramatic declines. And yet, none of these variations have had anything to do with the amenities in Fairfax. Downs predicts that the market volatility will continue in years to come, making it extremely difficult to predict the circumstances that will influence land and space values.

Next, Downs noted that the restricted capital markets and generational changes in consumer spending will have unexpected consequences in Tysons Corner. He predicted that a continuing shortage of capital could curtail the Task Force’s ambitious building plan. Additionally, and perhaps more significantly, over-leveraged developers who bought land or buildings when credit was easy and cheap will be unable to finance their debt. Downs suggested that in the coming years, many developers may be wiped out. Finally, we might see an economic shift as a result of the recent recession, which has already changed consumer spending habits, and the retirement of baby boomers who will spend more on health care and less on many other things.l This economic shift could affect development in Tysons, Downs said.

Finally, Downs explained why the issue of mobility will not be solved by the planned four Metro stations in Tysons Corner. Successful urban transit systems, Downs explained, include feeder and connector systems to complement the rail line. Downs described the model in Zurich, where the city made significant sacrifices in profitability in order to provide enough convenience (especially in the forms of frequent stops) so that residents would choose public transit over their cars. Such an investment requires public subsidies, Downs said. The community must be willing to make that type of investment in order to really make public transit work.

Despite these three areas of challenge, Downs concluded that Tysons Corner has the potential to become a “truly awesome” urban center according to the Task Force vision. Downs noted that having one centralized authority will help Tysons. He concluded with the three tenets he believes will guide Tysons to success:

1. A sustained cooperative effort
2. Discipline
3. Vision, combined with a willingness to compromise.

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